If the White House can introduce countries like Nambia and Normay, then so can I…let’s talk about #Utrumpia

January 17, 2018 ~ jlpagano

THE ISSUE

To support President Trump and his agenda, you either have to believe everything he says or at least decide that it is to your advantage to make it look as though you do. Either way, you are living in a world which I call ‘Utrumpia’.

THE MEDIA

Unemployment for Black Americans is the lowest ever recorded. Trump approval ratings with Black Americans has doubled. Thank you, and it will get even (much) better! @FoxNews

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 16, 2018

PLUS

Podcast by FiveThirtyEight.com on January 16, 2018

‘Immigration Showdown‘

“...even if you were to take this generous interpretation of this data on it’s own, we’re still talking about a ‘doubling’ from eight to sixteen percent, which is not necessarily something to crow about?”

THE COMMENT

Mexicans are rapists. The crowd at the 2017 Inauguration was the largest there has ever been [period]. Hillary only won the popular vote because there were millions of votes cast illegally. There were fine people on both sides at Charlottesville. There was no collusion with Russia. Trump is a very stable genius.

All politicians lie. Actually, all humans do. But what Donald Trump has done to elevate himself to the highest office in the USA is on a whole new level, even for politics.

He has actually created a world for himself. One where he establishes his own parameters and premises. I call it ‘Utrumpia’. What you see in the opening paragraph is merely a selection of the ‘realities’ in this world.

One of the ‘best qualities’ of this mystical realm is that anything and everything about it can change, because anything and everything is defined by what Donald Trump says in his latest tweet, no matter how much it contradicts something he has stated before or, in the case of the example I’m using for this post, no matter how much the actual facts and figures prove his assertions to be wrong.

As soon as I saw the tweet on his perceived increase in support from the African-American community [courtesy of Utrumpia’s premier news network], I was hoping that the number-crunchers from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com would take his claims to task, and in their latest podcast, they do just that.

But it’s not my intention to dig too deeply into this one issue, rather to highlight the wider one that is his overall strategy, although to call it a strategy would suggest we’re buying into his ‘stable genius’ claim…it could be more accurate to call it a ‘delusion’.

From this day forth you are going to see many references to Utrumpia on this website. It is unfortunately a place we will have to visit quite often while its creator resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. JLP

#IANWAE

The Young Turks’ Cenk Ungur lets loose on corporate Democrats as time runs out to secure DACA deal

January 16, 2018January 16, 2018 ~ jlpagano

The Republicans and Democrats need to agree on a budget before Friday otherwise the government will ‘shut down’, ie there will be no money to pay federal employees. As the Senate must have at least 60 votes to pass a spending bill, even though the Democrats are in a minority their cotes are needed and thus they have some leverage and they are hoping to use this to finally secure a deal for the so-called ‘Dreamers’ or children of illegal immigrants who have proven themselves to be productive members of American society.

YouTube clip by The Young Turks on January 15, 2018

“…you’re weak, you’re losers, you’re pathetic. How do you expect us to get excited, to show up to the polls, for these loser Democrats who can’t figure out a way to fight against fucking Trump???”

The reason we are outraged by Trump’s recent ‘shithole’ remark [not even going to bother with the word ‘alleged’…we all know he said it] is not because such words that shouldn’t ever be used in politics…in his case, it was all about the fact that he was referring to entire nations of people.

Of course there are times when the use of ‘salty’ language is absolutely necessary, and in this clip of the Young Turks, host Cenk Ungur rightly calls out the corporate Democrats for their meagre attempts to use their leverage in the government spending bill to secure proper legislation for the Dreamers.

It’s not often that Ungur gets this animated – though to be clear, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing because if he went on a tirade for every clip he’d be no better than Alex Jones. This is definitely the kind of time-sensitive issue where a verbal kick up the backside is exactly what it required. Whether it will do any good remains to be seen – I’m not so sure Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi know how to use YouTube, let alone subscribe to the Young Turks.

#IANWAE

Irish Times lets Fine Gael off the hook big time in end-of-year love-in, er, I mean, podcast

December 27, 2017December 27, 2017 ~ jlpagano

THE ISSUE

The Irish political conversation is dominated by a narrative that insists the electorate’s only two options for government leadership are the so-called ‘Civil War’ parties.

THE MEDIA

Podcast by Irish Times – Inside Politics : ‘The Year In Politics’ on Tuesday, December 26, 2017

‘…people feel they can relate to these people more because they feel they have lived the same experiences they have…’

THE COMMENT

Over in the US, Donald Trump and his Republican-led government are constantly moaning and groaning under the weight of repeated challenging reporting from publications like the New York Times. Too bad its Irish namesake doesn’t give our own recently-appointed political leader similar treatment, if this ‘end of year’ summary is anything to go by.

Essentially the all-male panel has given Leo Varadkar & co a free Party Political Podcast. Wherever these are recorded, I pity the poor cleaning staff because they’ll have their work cut out removing all of Fine Gael’s 2017 political woes that have been swept under the carpet.

Apparently we are meant to have forgotten that this is the party that had to admit defeat on the water charges. Well, when I say ‘admit’ defeat, I actually mean grudgingly concede it.

Apparently we are meant to have forgotten the fact that Varadkar rose to power under an electoral process within his party that was chronically tilted away from the grass roots members, meaning all he had to do was shmooze his way through his fellow TDs to get the nod. This weighting method is very similar to that which saw Hillary Clinton controversially secure the 2016 Democratic nomination at the expense of Bernie Sanders.

Apparently we are meant to forget the homeless crisis still prevalent in the Republic, simply because the Taoiseach says so.

And apparently we are meant to forget the disgraceful whisteblower controversy which nearly sparked a Christmas election and ultimately cost the Tánaiste her job.

Nobody expects the mainstream media to completely ignore a government’s positives, but what this IT podcast has done is to summarize the Irish year in politics thusly…’Sure isn’t it great that our top cabinet members are all so young?‘ [paraphrase]

And as one of the leading bits of ‘evidence’ of the effects of having such youthful leadership, the ‘lads’ cite the Eighth Amendment debate.

Despite the fact that Fine Gael’s own Citizens Assembly recommends repeal and legislation, and despite the fact that the Oireachtas Committee recommends repeal and legislation, the government position at the time of this podcast was that a decision is yet to be made on how to proceed. No guarantee has been forthcoming that a straight yes or no choice on repeal will be offered to the Irish public.

Yet somehow the panel twists this state of affairs into one that represents a sweeping generational change. Well, for this conservative jurisdiction that may be true to an extent, but given that Fine Gael are the country’s most conservative mainstream party [just about ahead of Fianna Fáil], do we think these ‘young pretenders’ have reached their current positions by cultural revolution or because the elder statesmen ahead of them on the ladder gave them a helping hand along the way?

And the final insult for me from this podcast came when they made the most ludicrous segue from the potential impact of FG’s boy wonder on the Irish electorate to the ‘youthquake’ experienced in Britain’s general election campaign that brought Jeremy Corbyn extremely close to Number 10. I had to switch it off after that so you’ll have to listen yourself to find out what they said after that.

Here’s to a 2018 where Ireland’s political establishment, both in Leinster House and the media, are called to account whenever they ignore at best, or put down at worst, progressive issues. JLP

#IANWAE

Donald Trump and the sheer stupidity of his supporters…sorry, but there is no other word for it

December 23, 2017December 23, 2017 ~ jlpagano

And so another year nears it’s end…this will probably be our final post before 2018.

Since his inauguration, so much has happened under the Trump administration that you wouldn’t know where to begin.

I would just like to focus on one aspect to sum up the year.

Put as simply as possible…I never thought it possible to say this about another human being in a serious context, but here goes…

If Trump supporters actually believe his assertion that everything in his tweets, on Fox News and on Breitbart is true, and everything on CNN, MSNBC, NYT and WaPo is made-up Fake News – and let’s be clear, his claims definitely do reach to those extremes – then THEY ARE STUPID.

That’s a horrible thing to say, but I’m afraid the English language doesn’t have another word for it.

Of course sometimes the mainstream media gets things wrong or leaves things out. And tough and all as it is to believe, once in a while Trump and co get something right [if for the wrong reasons sometimes, like shutting down the Trans Pacific Parntership].

But the President never gives specific examples of ‘Fake News’. And to be fair, it’s not as though the media does a whole lot to stand up for itself. Surely there’s a legal case to be made for accusations that they just sit around and make up stories out of thin air? I would have thought the President may be pushing too far the assumption that they wouldn’t wish to disclose their sources.

His hypocrisy and exaggeration is so obvious that nobody with any decent level of intelligence can possibly get behind it….unless they are ‘in on the act’ for their own personal benefit, of course.

We can only home that smarter arguments will prevail in 2018 and beyond.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all. JLP

#IANWAE

The story is that Roy Moore lost, not that the other guy won…what’s his name again?

December 13, 2017 ~ jlpagano

THE ISSUE

In one of the most widely reported elections in US Senate history, in the heavily-Republican state of Alabama which Trump won in 2016 by 28 percentage points, accused paedophile Roy Moore was defeated by his Democratic challenger Don James. No, sorry, it was Dan Jenkins. Or was it Doug Jones. Nah, I was right the first time. I think.

THE MEDIA

Article by CNN.com on Wednesday, December 13, 2017

‘Roy Moore won’t concede‘

“You know, part of the thing — part of the problem with this campaign is we’ve been painted in an unfavorable and unfaithful light.”

THE COMMENT

I think I can safely say that I’ve never been this happy about the results from an Alabama Senate race.

You might think this is ‘Fake News’ but when I opened half an eyelid at 4:30am Irish time this morning and looked at my phone, the banner on the CNN notification read : ‘Roy Moore loses’. Surely in pretty much any other race the headline would refer to the guy who won? Well, this wasn’t any other race.

This was an amazing win for the Democrats, albeit with a perfect storm of controversy on the other side, but they still had to pick the right guy and run the right campaign to get him over the line, so bravo.

What interests me right now is how the President will react, and more importantly, how his inner circle will react. Do they sit down with him and come up with a proper spin to present to the media? Or do they sit down WITHOUT him first and come up with a spin to present to HIM? I think we all know it’s the latter.

No doubt the spin will be something like ‘Roy would have lost by even more [Moore?] were it not for the President’s endorsement’. Sure.

#IANWAE

Inevitable attack on #RepealThe8th movement targets Amnesty Ireland and Colm O’Gorman

December 10, 2017 ~ jlpagano

THE ISSUE

Colm O’Gorman is both Executive Director of Amnesty International Ireland and a leader of the #RepealThe8th campaign, thus making him a prime target for the so-called ‘Pro-Life’ movement.

THE MEDIA

Article by Amnesty International from Amnesty.ie on Friday, December 8, 2017

‘CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANISATIONS UNDER THREAT FROM DRACONIAN LAW AND AMNESTY COULD FACE CRIMINAL CHARGES‘

SIPOC wrote to Amnesty International Ireland only last year to acknowledge that its work on reforming Ireland’s abortion laws, which includes the work supported by the OSF grant, was not in breach of the [Electoral] Act

THE COMMENT

My attention was drawn to this matter by a string of ‘outrage’ posts from the usual right-wing suspects on Twitter such as John McGuirk and Evert Bopp.

The perennial trolls make several references to supposed ‘illegal actions’ by Amnesty.ie and have been recycling the same argument all weekend. Obviously only a fool would take their social media opinions at face value without making an effort to get Amnesty’s side of the story, which is very different as you can see by the above link.

What interests me about this is how the law in question is being applied. Ireland is great at passing laws but when it comes to enforcing them, not so much. While it does look like Amnesty was in technical violation of the said Act, it also seems that they were singled out by the authority in question, after previously being advised that they were ok.

Imagine a road with a 60km speed limit on which cars travel daily above and beyond that level without penalty. Suddenly a group of ‘concerned citizens’ inform the gardaí about one vehicle in particular, after which an officer is dispatched with a speed gun to patrol the road to catch that one suspect without checking all the others.

We could use another analogy, calling this a political equivalent of racial profiling. Amnesty [and by extension the Irish mainstream media for not covering this to the liking of Messrs McGuirk and Bopp] are being accused of political bias when you would have to question the motives of those who initiated this controversy by registering a string of complaints with SIPOC.

I wonder how much scrutiny of funding the likes of Iona Institute and Libertas could handle.

With public opinion strongly in favour of repealing the 8th Amendment to the Irish Constitution, it was inevitable that the so-called ‘Pro-Life’ movement would work behind the scenes to pull any kind of stunt they could to try and tip the scales the other way. It’s a shame that they have managed to persuade and official body to help them in their cause, but hopefully enough people see sense to realise for what it is and not take it any further.

#IANWAE

Big step for #RepealThe8th movement as Oireachtas committee set to back up Citizens’ Assembly

December 8, 2017 ~ jlpagano

THE ISSUE

The Irish Government has been considering the Eighth Amendment to the Irish constitution which enshrined the protection of unborn children after a referendum in 1983.

THE MEDIA

Article by Sarah Bardon in Irish Times on Wednesday, December 6, 2017

‘Oireachtas committee set to recommend repeal of Eighth Amendment‘

Fianna Fáil TD Billy Kelleher said trying to replace or amend article 40.3.3 is not practical, insisting a straight repeal is the only option.

THE COMMENT

I’m no fan of Fianna Fáil but when they or Fine Gael or indeed any political party falls on the right side of an issue I’m happy to give them their due.

After hearing the opinion of experts from all points on the vast spectrum of this issue, first the Citizens’ Assembly and now a multi-party Oireachtas Committee, it seems the will of the Irish people has changed drastically from the two-thirds yes vote from the referendum back in Ireland’s Dark Ages, also known as the 80s.

Of course the so-called Pro Life movement is making accusations of ‘bias’ because apparently their ‘side’ of the argument didn’t get the 50/50 coverage they wanted but as I said earlier, it’s a spectrum rather than a two-sided coin and the Iona Institute position lies only at one extreme end and thus should receive a proportionate amount of exposure.

It’s not over yet though – this article simply states that the committee is ‘set to recommend’ repeal. They still have to actually recommend it. Then the Dáil needs to organise a referendum for straight repeal with a simple yes or no option for the Irish people, not some fudge involving complicated wording.

Here’s hoping the committee members go on to back up their words with action next week.

#IANWAE

ADMIN UPDATE – new ‘IMC’ format

December 6, 2017 ~ jlpagano

We’ve decided to shake things up here at FPP with what we call our ‘IMC’ format for most of our posts. That stands for ‘Issue > Media > Comment’.

First a very brief outline of the overall issue up for discussion.

THE MEDIA

Whether it’s a YouTube clip, tweet or a good old-fashioned article, we link to or embed the media source that has inspired this particular IMC.

THE COMMENT

Finally, our FPP opinion on the issue, based of course on the media content linked above.

We hope to put this new format into practice quite a bit over the coming months….stay tuned. We still plan to write more traditional opinion pieces but with other online commitments, these IMCs are the way forward for FPP.

Only one way for the Irish Labour party to come back that I can see

August 17, 2017 ~ jlpagano

So I was flicking through my twitter feed today, desperate to find something, ANYthing that didn’t make reference to US presidents apologising for racists. I noticed this –

I’ve gotten to know lots of SD activists. The notion that these principled, decent people would give it all up for Alan Kelly & Labour 🙄

— Dermot Looney (@dlooney) August 17, 2017

Dermot Looney is a local councillor to me and I have followed his tweets for a while. He is talking about this article in the Irish Examiner where Labour TD and former Environment Minister Alan Kelly suggested that the Social Democrats should merge with his own Labour Party. An interesting proposition. Interesting in that it’s so laughable and smacks of desperation.

I made a grave mistake in 2011. Not only did I vote for Labour, I backed their going into government. I thought with such a strong contingent in the Dáil they’d be able to implement a decent portion of their manifesto. I was very, very, wrong.

On the contrary, while they certainly did not do nothing in government (bringing Educate Together into the Irish school system wasn’t nothing and despite all the austerity they managed to keep union strikes at arms length), they were an absolute failure at accentuating any positives and were attacked from all sides to become yet another minority partner of an Irish coalition to be devastated by the electorate.

So is there any way back for them? Well with this ‘new politics’ we seem to be ‘enjoying’ now, they have been able to get policies pushed further down the Leinster House canal than they might have before, but is that enough?

Well I can tell you one thing…courting other parties on the ‘left’ to join them isn’t their answer, at least if they ever want me to take a punt on them again. In fact, now that I think of it, only one thing would turn my head.

I want the Labour Party to pledge that they will never again form a government in this country until it’s one they can lead.

Prefereably I’d want to broaden the scope of the pledge to say they’d go in with any ‘left-wing’ government but since Sinn Féin are considered ‘left’ that just wouldn’t do.

Now don’t get me wrong – I know they would never make such a pledge. They’d continue to use the ‘watchdog’ argument for going in with either FF or FG even though it has failed to materialize so many times.

But for me, if they really want any hope of getting a sizeable vote at a general election they have no choice but to lead the resistance to the FF/FG monopoly – in fact, if there are any two parties on this island Alan Kelly should suggest merge it’s them.

The way things stand now, the Roisin Shortalls and the Joan Collins and the Mick Wallaces of this world do nothing but mock Brendan Howlin’s party, and from his own rhetoric the feeling appears mutual.

Perhaps my idea is folly but Labour will need to do something otherwise more of their ranks, including Dermot Looney himself, will defect to parties like the Social Democrats. JLP

#IANWAE